Wildfire Ignition Probability

Human - Western Region

Published by
Pyrologix
Last updated on
March 6, 2025

About

Wildfire ignition probability data provides spatially explicit estimates of the likelihood that a wildfire will start in a given location. The resulting datasets, specific to the Western and Southeastern U.S. regions, offer geospatial estimates of wildfire ignition probabilities, distinguishing between human-caused and natural (lightning) ignitions, as well as providing combined probabilities for both. The authors employ Random Forest machine learning, customized for probabilistic predictions, to model ignition likelihood based on spatial trends in observed fire occurrences, topographic features, climatic factors, vegetation characteristics, and human development patterns. The resulting datasets are scaled to recent observed ignition rates (e.g. 2006-2020 fire occurrence database) and have a spatial resolution of 120 meters. These datasets are a valuable resource for wildfire risk assessments (QWRA), risk mitigation planning, and decision support in land management, policy development, and other fire-related contexts.

The dataset available for download below corresponds to the findings presented in the publication, " which details the methodology, analysis, and key insights.

For a deeper dive, access the full publication HERE, or read a summary on Vibrant Planet's blog.

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Wildfire Ignition Probability

Probability of human-caused wildfire ignitions across the western United States.

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